Present status and future scenario of water security in the Barind area of Bangladesh

Abstract: E 2019 The present study assessed the spatial and temporal dynamics of water security from 1988 to 2021 and projected the future scenarios for 2026 and 2031 in the Barind area of Bangladesh. Geospatial techniques such as, weighted overlay method with composite weight levels ranging from 1 to 5 (representing very low to very high water security), were applied to delineate and identify water security conditions across specific locations within the Barind area. A total influence of 100 was distributed among key variables based on their relative importance. Using GIS and remote sensing software, rainfall, temperature, groundwater, and surface water conditions were processed, estimated, and predicted based on collected datasets. The findings reveal a significant deterioration in water security from 1988 to 2021, with a noticeable expansion of both very low and low water security conditions. Very low water security, nearly negligible in 1988, affected 17.08% of the region by 2021. Low water security increased from 12.22% in 1988 to 27.39% in 2021. Moderate water security, initially covering a substantial portion of the region, declined to 41.06% by 2021, while high water security areas dropped sharply from 44.06% in 1988 to just 12.29% by 2021. Throughout this period, very high water security conditions remained consistently limited, covering only 2.18% of the region by 2021. Projections for 2026 and 2031 suggest a further decline in water security, with very low water security predicted to affect 30.42% of the region by 2031 and low water security expected to cover 36.72%. High water security is projected to shrink to just 4.47% of the region, while very high water security will remain stable but limited, covering only 1.43%. These trends signify the pressing needs for improved water management strategies such as surface water conservation, sustainable irrigation practices, managed aquifer recharge and afforestation to mitigate increasing water scarcity and ensure sustainable resource use in the Barind area. 

Keywords: Climate change, future prediction, ground water, water security, weighted overlay