Shoreline change analysis and sustainable coastal management for Kutubdia island: trends, vegetation impact, and future projections

Abstract: This paper explores the shoreline evolution of Kutubdia Island, situated in the southeast Bay of Bengal, over 36 years (1988-2024). This is mainly to determine long-term changes in the shoreline by using geospatial analysis, which is done by using Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) and Weighted Linear Regression (WLR) to establish a trend in the change of erosion and accretion. The paper also examines how shoreline movement correlates with vegetation health in order to determine how it helps stabilize the coastline in terms of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Findings show that a considerable amount of erosion occurred on the coastline, as 88.57 percent of the transects had evidence of shoreline erosion, resulting in a total loss of land of more than 4,990 meters. Regions that had reduced cover of vegetation were identified as prone to erosion, and this justifies the significance of restoring the vegetation in preventing further erosion. To add to this, the research makes projections on the shoreline location in 2034 and 2044, which demonstrate that there is still a loss of land, especially on the lower side of the island. On the basis of such findings, a sustainable coastal management plan has been advanced, which has an emphasis on ecological reinstatement, including the plantation of mangroves and community-customized strategies. The article identifies a pressing need to implement special measures to safeguard vulnerable areas and guarantee a sustainable future of sustaining the ecological resiliency in the coastal environments, serving as a reference to other exposed coastal geographies susceptible to environmental attrition. 

Keywords: Shoreline change, geospatial analysis, vegetation impact, sustainable coastal management